If you love Christmas but think it’s not complete without a good snowfall, here are all the chances of snow for this year’s Christmas holidays. According to the latest data, only certain regions of the United States will have the official meteorological definitions for a white Christmas—that is, at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. And if we’re being picky, snow that falls later doesn’t count.
Although some parts of the country have had an unusually cold start to December, temperatures are set to rise at the end of the month, which could melt much of this snow cover before Christmas and Santa Claus arrive with gifts.
Most likely to have a white Christmas
According to the latest forecast, the highest chances of snowfall on the ground for Christmas morning are concentrated in the northern United States (including parts of the northern Midwest and the Great Lakes region); the mountainous areas of the west (the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and northern Rocky Mountains).
These are the areas that have a chance of getting at least an inch of snow. Neighboring areas will likely get snow as well, but it will not stick to the ground.
Although there has been heavy snowfall in the Midwest and Northwest, this snow is not likely to stick. Forecasters predict a general warming trend across much of the Midwest and eastern United States during Christmas week. Although cold fronts will continue to pass through, they are expected to be shorter in duration and limited to the northern strip, so the existing snow cover on the ground is expected to melt gradually.
Needless to say, the United States and the West Coast have a very low probability of seeing white snow on the ground. Florida, Texas, California, and Arizona very rarely see snow on Christmas Day, unless there has been an abnormal weather phenomenon. Even in the Northwest, New York City and Boston depend on specific weather systems.
We can expect it to be very cold on Christmas Day, but not snowy at all in these areas.
Areas which expect more snow
Although the eastern part of the United States is expected to experience minimal new snowfall outside of areas near the Canadian border and the snow belts of the Great Lakes, the western mountains should continue to collect snow through Christmas.
The Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and northern Rocky Mountains will continue to receive snow, replenishing the cushion of snow that was depleted earlier this season due to rising temperatures and record rainfall.
Those who have taken vacation days and are spending Christmas in the highlands or on the ski slopes still have a good chance of a white Christmas.
2025 Christmas weather compared to last year
Broadly speaking, meteorologists say that this year’s Christmas snow cover will be very similar to last year’s. On Christmas Day 2024, only about 26% of the United States had snow on Christmas morning. Still, there is always the possibility of last-minute surprises as the holiday approaches.
As with all long-term weather forecasts, meteorological agencies point out that the details may still change in the coming days, but the general pattern is expected to remain stable. If your area enjoyed a white Christmas last year, there is a high probability that this year you will also wake up on the morning of December 25 to snow when you look out the window.
White Christmas definition
If we’re being picky, a white Christmas doesn’t just depend on the snow that falls on that day. According to meteorologists, there must be at least an inch of snow on the ground. In other words, a white Christmas is one where you wake up on the morning of December 25 and everything is covered in a blanket of white snow. It’s not enough for it to be snowing; there must be accumulated snow.