2025 was coming to an end, and for many Americans, it felt as if we had been living in a simulation. Massive tariffs and trade wars were announced… But the world did not end as predicted by the Aztec prophecy. Wasn’t this supposed to cause prices to skyrocket? The economy has enormous inertia, and this inertia protected us… At least until now. However, many economic experts warn that 2026 will be the year of “reckoning.”
Temporary protections and accumulated inventories that cushioned the blow last year are already running out, so we are not spared a few small economic crises, like aftershocks from an earthquake. What we did not pay for in 2025, we will surely pay for with interest in 2026.
The Grocery List in 2026
Although the economy and politics seem to have accelerated into a frenzy, agriculture and livestock operate on much slower cycles, ranging from one to two years. That’s why the cow you were ready to slaughter this year was unaffected by the tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada in 2025.
However, those tariffs destroyed the importation of young animals needed to fill your supermarket’s meat section. This is called a “biological gap,” and in 2025, cattle imports from Mexico fell by 795,000 head due to tariff costs and health issues. Since young animals were not imported, the country’s feedlot inventory reached its lowest level since 2018.
You’re probably already suspecting this, but this will have consequences for hamburger lovers (and anyone who likes to have real protein in their diet). Analysts predict that beef will reach $10 per pound in the third quarter of 2026.
Hipster vegans won’t escape unscathed either, as imports of trendy fruits such as avocados are also skyrocketing. Tariffs of 25 to 35% on Mexican products will mean that items such as avocados, strawberries, and peppers will once again have a much higher price tag.
And we can’t even turn to alcohol to forget our problems! Alcohol distributors are selling off their last stocks of tequila and Mexican beer purchased under the old rules. When this stock is replenished in 2026, the price tag will reflect the new tariffs of 2025.
The paradox of cheap oil
You’ve probably heard that the global price of crude oil is plummeting. In fact, the price per barrel is predicted to fall to $55 due to global oversupply. However, that doesn’t mean we’re seeing bargain prices at the gas station, right? However, refining capacity in the United States has fallen dramatically, as several older plants have closed.
With fewer factories producing gasoline, those that remain have the power to increase their profit margins. The conclusion? The profit margin for diesel is expected to rise from $0.52 per gallon in 2024 to $0.84 per gallon in 2026. Basically, refineries will keep much of the savings that should be going into your pocket.
FAQs
Why doesn’t gasoline prices drop dramatically if oil is cheap?
This is due to a variable called “Crack Spread.” Even if crude oil drops to $55/barrel, U.S. refineries have closed plants, reducing the capacity to manufacture gasoline.
Which foods will see the biggest price increases in 2026?
Beef will be the most affected, with predictions of up to $10 per pound.
What is the “Inventory Cliff”?
It is the moment when stores sell the last product they bought “cheap” before tariffs. In 2026, warehouses must be restocked with products that already pay the full 25-35% tax, suddenly transferring that price increase to your wallet.
Will anything go down in price in 2026?
Due to a huge offer of crude oil, it is expected that the oil price will ultimately drop–at least partially–at the end of 2026. For now, we can only brace ourselves… and look for a local butcher if you want to eat red meat next year!