After having to deal with inflated prices due to the importation tariffs, it seems like the Government wants to throw a bone to the population—for their troubles. With the extraordinary revenue collected through customs tariffs, President Donald Trump has publicly proposed a $2,000 check for Americans. The president can be accused of many things, but being an economic liberal is not one of them.
However, not everyone would receive the check; in fact, 42% of American households would be excluded. Above all, this check would go to the households that need it most. Not to mention that there are doubts as to whether there are financial means to send this check to so many families in the country.
The tariff dividend
This concept was coined by President Donald Trump, who proposes using the hundreds of billions of dollars that have been collected through the imposition of new tariffs on products from almost every nation in the world. Instead of allocating all these funds to paying off debt or financing federal projects, the plan is to return a portion of them in direct payments to citizens. And there is nothing more populist than sending people a check as if it were free money.
Unlike the extra $200 check for retirees, it seems that this check is actually being implemented. The promised amount is “at least $2,000 per person” (we will wait and see). Although it was formally announced on November 10, 2025, via his social network, Truth Social, the payment of the check could be postponed until mid-2026. President Donald Trump had hinted in July 2025 at the possibility of a “small refund” for tariffs.
Who is excluded from receiving the check?
Obviously, this measure is not intended for everyone. As tariffs are estimated to have had a more negative impact on people with lower incomes, those with high incomes will not receive them. But who qualifies then? According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the threshold will be set at $100,000 per year in income for families. This will ensure that this check reaches families who will notice a difference.
According to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and analyses by organizations such as the Fundation, 42% of households in 2025 will earn more than $100,000. This creates some controversy among the middle class, which had a household income of $108,600 in 2024. In any case, this check will be for low-income citizens, not for the working and middle classes, as he said.
Other stimulus checks issued in the past, such as the COVID-19 stimulus checks, used much higher income thresholds, so the limit on this check is creating quite a bit of discontent among the population. However, the money for this check comes from money collected through tariffs, while the COVID-19 stimulus checks were printed expressly by the government(thanks to the fiat system), which caused rampant inflation a couple of years later.
Will they give out this check?
As with the $200 check proposal for retirees that was proposed in the Senate last month, we first have to do the math. It’s all well and good to talk about checks and free money, but if there’s no money in the coffers, it’s of little use. Paying $2,000 to all middle- and low-income taxpayers would cost approximately $300 billion, or $368 billion if eligible dependents are also included.
However, as of September 2025, the new tariffs have only generated about $117 billion in revenue. In other words, the proposal has a funding gap of nearly $200 billion. The revenue from these tariffs is clearly insufficient to cover the cost of the check. That is why economists and fiscal policy analysts have been very critical of this model.
Ultimately, tariffs are a tax that directly impacts U.S. consumers, as import costs are ultimately passed on to retail prices. There is still a lot to be seen, but we seriously doubt that this check will ever be sent out.